A fundamental question in data analysis.
Sales are down this quarter over last year. What changed?
Student test scores are down this year over those from five years ago. What changed?
I feel terrible today, but I didn't last week. What changed?
I'm making more money this year than I've ever made before. What changed?
The time targets on this project are slipping more than our previous projects. What changed?
And so on.
Now, the
composition of the change may be its own study, but the key to understanding why you are where you are begins with the "what changed" question.
Sales are down. Hmmm. We changed advertising agencies
just before the down-trend.
I feel terrible. Hmmm. My mother-in-law arrived
three days before that.
Student test scores are down. Hmmm. We started teaching "self esteem" instead of fundamentals
just before that.
I'm making more money. Hmmm. I stopped watching television
just before that.
Project targets are slipping. Hmmm. We adopted a new project management system
just before that.
And so on.
And here's where the metal meets the meat:
CorrectionRequiresHonesty. If you just make up something to fill in the "what changed" blank, things are
not going to get better. So, if you want actual correction, you gotta get honest with what's changed.
There are other factors, like getting the time frame right, like understanding
how the change would create the currently observed effect, like knowing that "painted new stripes in the parking lot" is
very unlikely to be responsible for the plunge in print quality of your brochures. Domain expertise is assumed. Indeed, required.
And why, since this is so
Bloody Obvious (tm), am I bringing it up at all?
Well, evidently
BloodyObvious !=
CommonSense. "What Changed" morphs into "What Can We Tell Management (tm)" so that they will not take us out back and shoot us? Occasionally, the morph is to "Who Can We Blame (tm)" -- and I guess I'll leave it at that.
--
GarryHamilton